Mortgage Rates Match Highest Level Since May 2024

The day began like many others over the past several weeks. Bonds hadn't moved much overnight, but were paying some attention to slightly higher oil prices. 10yr Treasury yields were still in the familiar September range between 4.93% and 5.01%, and there was limited economic data on tap that threatened to upset the apple cart. Now let's talk about tail risk. It refers to a distribution of potential outcomes for something that can be reasonably forecasted with a margin of error. A vast majority of the outcomes fall in the main body of the parabolic distribution, but occasionally, an outcome will fall at one of the tails.  While this week's economic calendar is indeed very light, today's lineup included a report that can have a big impact on rates on very rare occasions. The res