Why Mortgage Rates Didn't Fall as Much as 30yr Bonds Today

Mortgage rates dropped on Wednesday due to a combination of lower oil prices and the announcement of changes to Treasury's bond buyback program. The oil price angle is easy to understand. Throughout the war, higher fuel prices have caused volatility in inflation expectations and inflation is a critical consideration for bonds/rates.  The Treasury buyback news is more complex and highly oversimplified by the average piece of media coverage. Here are the details that matter: The original buyback program began in 2024 under the Biden admin when Yellen was the Treasury secretary It is not quantitative easing or "new money creation."  Treasury gets money from issuing bonds or via other federal receipts (taxes, tariffs, etc) The program was continued/expanded under Trump/